See attached plot of A∙x-b alliance unpenalized score residuals vs percent of alliance scores, taken from Twitter data dated Sun Mar9 20:03:13 ET containing 1822 Qual Matches with 944 Teams.
A∙x~b, where:
A is the binary design matrix of the alliances;
x is the Team unpenalized OPR* score vector;
A∙x is the alliance unpenalized OPR* score vector;
b is the alliance unpenalized actual score vector;
A∙x-b is the residual vector (difference between A∙x and b)
From the graph you can see that 65% of alliance scores are within ±20 unpenalized points of the OPR. 37% are within ±10 points.
*L2 norm (least squares) solution of A∙x~b