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Originally Posted by Mike Bortfeldt
I suspect the break around zero occurs due to penalties.
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Correct.
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All the matches with negative win margins were decided by penalties points...
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Correct.
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...and the number of matches where this occurs is a small subset of all the data.
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Some would say "Not small enough."
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All the data with positive win margins include matches with no penalties, offsetting penalties or matches where the penalties did not affect the final outcome.
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Correct.
I think Mark's question was why the curve changes so abruptly at the Y axis. I've been trying to come up with a good intuitive way to explain it. Any takers?