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Unread 17-03-2014, 00:34
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Re: Week3 cumulative Twitter stats & OPRs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ether View Post
I think Mark's question was why the curve changes so abruptly at the Y axis. I've been trying to come up with a good intuitive way to explain it. Any takers?
I thought Mike Bortfeldt explained that well enough.

We're not seeing a break so much as a graph representing two populations of different sizes.
Everything to the right of the Y-axis shows the fairly expected distribution of winning margins. This represents just under 90% of all matches.

The data to the left of the Y-axis shows a similar albeit reflected pattern. It is scaled down in frequency since it comes from the ~11% of matches that would have a different winner without the penalties.

There are some other effects due to penalties being larger and more quantized than the point value of scoring objectives, but the main cause is due to sub-population size differences.
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