tldr: probably 57 or 58 pts but we'll know far more this time next week
The answer to this question really depends on two things we don't know yet:
- how much correlation we see between the points a team gets in both their scored events and
- how many points are "scored" by teams in their third (or fourth!) event.
A high correlation will tend to reduce the Championship threshold since a large mass of points will be allocated to a small number of high performing teams therefore decreasing the points awarded to the mid-tier teams.
Points being allocated to teams in their third event and therefore discarded will also reduce the cutoff threshold by suppressing the total number of points awarded during the district event phase of the season.
We're not quite half way into the season (4 of 9 district events complete) so it's a little early to have a solid prediction; while 9% of teams have completed both scored events over 15% haven't played in any event yet. A graph of districts by first, second and third event teams
Choosing the top 54 robots of 163 teams in New England means we are selecting the top third of teams. In each of the 4 events so far the top tercile
(I had to look up that word too) is between 26 and 36 points, averaging 32, so a simple answer is that championship threshold will be twice that.
My current estimate is that the threshold will be slightly lower, probably 57 or 58pts, but in a few days the Week 4 events will be concluding. At that point every team will have played at least one event and a third of teams will have competed in both events, so we should have a far better idea of where the threshold will fall.
If anyone is still reading, here are some unofficial stats for the events so far
Code:
Event NHNAS NHDUR CTGRO MAWOR
Week 1 2 2 3
Teams 39 36 33 39
Rounds 12 12 12 12
Matches 78 72 66 78
DQs 10 1 1 2
Total QualPts 462 430 394 468
Mean QualPts 11.85 11.94 11.94 12.00
Total SeedPts 236 236 236 236
Total ElimPts 210 210 210 210
Total AwardPts 86 86 86 86
Total Points 994 962 926 1000
Mean Points 25.5 26.7 28.1 25.6
StdDev Points 16.7 17.1 15.7 16.2
Max Points 75 72 57 58
Min Points 4 5 6 2
Median Points 23 24 25 19
Top Tercile 33.5 26.5 36.0 31.8
Some other musings on district points from last year's FiM & MAR season can be
found here particularly on the substantial advantage of attending smaller events.