Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeE
Choosing the top 54 robots of 163 teams in New England means we are selecting the top third of teams. In each of the 4 events so far the top tercile (I had to look up that word too) is between 26 and 36 points, averaging 32, so a simple answer is that championship threshold will be twice that.
My current estimate is that the threshold will be slightly lower, probably 57 or 58pts, but in a few days the Week 4 events will be concluding. At that point every team will have played at least one event and a third of teams will have competed in both events, so we should have a far better idea of where the threshold will fall.
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It looks like your analysis looks only at the points awarded at events... not the rookie and 2nd-year points also. This will be 10 points for each rookie and 5 points for each 2nd year team... which, if there were 10 of each in NE would actually only amount to 150 points. Averaged out, this would probably affect the threshold by less than a point.
Given where the cut-off was in MI in 2013 (I don't recall off the top of my head; I think it was around 52-54) the prediction of 57 to 58 seems reasonable given the various changes from FiM 2013 to NEFIRST 2014 (rookie/second year points, different percentage of teams making DCMP, higher point values for many awards in 2014, etc.).
As Jess said though, the cut-off won't be solid... a fair number of teams will likely decide not to go to DCMP for a variety of reasons, even if they are above the threshold. This will shift the effective threshold downwards by some to-be-determined amount.
Agreed that predictions should be far better after this week, when all the teams will've played their first event and a larger percentage will've played their second event.