Quote:
Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter
It looks like your analysis looks only at the points awarded at events... not the rookie and 2nd-year points also. This will be 10 points for each rookie and 5 points for each 2nd year team... which, if there were 10 of each in NE would actually only amount to 150 points. Averaged out, this would probably affect the threshold by less than a point.
Given where the cut-off was in MI in 2013 (I don't recall off the top of my head; I think it was around 52-54) the prediction of 57 to 58 seems reasonable given the various changes from FiM 2013 to NEFIRST 2014 (rookie/second year points, different percentage of teams making DCMP, higher point values for many awards in 2014, etc.).
As Jess said though, the cut-off won't be solid... a fair number of teams will likely decide not to go to DCMP for a variety of reasons, even if they are above the threshold. This will shift the effective threshold downwards by some to-be-determined amount.
Agreed that predictions should be far better after this week, when all the teams will've played their first event and a larger percentage will've played their second event.
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Last year in FiM the cutoff was 76, that was with ~205 teams and an average of 47 points per team. This year there are 278 teams with an average of 54 points a team because of the new award and rookie and soph point bonuses. It looks like they are projecting low 80s as the cutoff. So most teams would need to at least advance to the finals once and win one round of the elims in the other district to advance. Otherwise they would need alot of qual wins and high pick points with award wins to advance to state.