Quote:
Originally Posted by brennonbrimhall
Is it possible to see the percent of matches that have been decided by fouls, broken down by week and by match type (qualification/elimination)?
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I thought I'd post my analysis -- I was looking to see if the proportion of matches that ended in fouls was increasing, decreasing, or staying the same. I ran a Chi-Square GOF test on the expected number of matches decided by fouls against the number of matches played that week times the total average rate of matches decided by fouls.
My null hypothesis was that each match had the same proportion of matches decided by fouls. With the percentage of matches that are decided by fouls being 23.34%, my x^2 value ended up being 46.4. I came up with a p-value of 5.06945E-07. So clearly, weeks and match type produce different numbers of matches decided by fouls.
Code:
MDBF Played Expected Difference X^2 Std. Resid.
1E: 29 159 37.11062625 -8.110626253 1.772598979 -1.331389868
1Q: 228 783 182.7523293 45.24767072 11.20287612 3.347069781
2E: 61 205 47.84703385 13.15296615 3.615699965 1.901499399
2Q: 312 1039 242.5027716 69.49722845 19.91674046 4.462817547
3E: 48 264 61.61764359 -13.61764359 3.009531137 -1.734800028
3Q: 293 1237 288.7160042 4.283995754 0.06356634 0.25212366
4E: 41 245 57.18304045 -16.18304045 4.579868371 -2.140062702
4Q: 253 1184 276.3457955 -23.34579549 1.972261479 -1.404372272
5E: 64 283 66.05224673 -2.052246727 0.063763412 -0.252514182
5Q: 340 1493 348.4664465 -8.466446515 0.205703353 -0.453545316
But, there's not really a solid trend. I would have liked to see the number of matches decided by fouls go down by week, but it's not that clear cut. It will be interesting to see Week 6 results and how they compare.