It's not only the team-to-team distance, it's also the team-to-sponsor distance. For teams in cities, these distances are small, but that's not the case for many teams, even teams that are relatively close to population centers. There's also the question of mentor support, which can be a problem even in the cities.
FRC 660 comes to mind. They were in Round Rock, the home of Dell, sponsored by BAE, a 2001 Rookie All Star, who suddenly stopped competing in 2010. Probably the departure of a key mentor, but I don't know their story.
Also, there's Reagan High School in Austin. They were FRC 4271, supported by JCP, and decided to move over to FTC. I'm still not sure why they didn't get the support, but that's a prime example of a grant beneficiary who dropped FRC because they couldn't get mentor and industry support.
For example of a manageable distance to a major city, Bastrop is 25 or so miles from Austin. They have good community support, and they are able to sustain a team. From my understanding of their story, this is due in large part to industry located in Bastrop that supports the Austin economy coupled with several dedicated retired community members with technical background who help out.
On the flip side, Del Rio is fairly isolated. You are guaranteed to go through a Border Control checkpoint when leaving it on your way to, well, anywhere. But, they keep their program alive.
Other isolated places that don't have industry or community support will need to rely on grants. That's my earlier point: How many teams got the TWC or JCP grant (both were fairly easy to get as I understand), spawned up a program, but never got the mentor support to sustain the team (like the Reagan situation above)? Or, more recently, how many potential teams and sponsors have looked at events that feature FRC next to FTC or VEX and say "well, I can reach X times more kids with that smaller program" and go after that instead? FRC is a big game, and it can be intimidating. It fits some schools well, and others not so much. But until we can express to Texas teachers, mentors, and sponsors that the FRC game offers so much different a challenge than the challenge of FTC or VEX, we can expect those FRC numbers to keep dwindling.
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the overall technology education programs are growing, as indicated by VEX and FTC growth. But, I don't like the idea that the FRC team count is shrinking.
Oh, and this decline in new rookies might be part of a broader problem:
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...hreadid=130809