Thanks for doing this, these are very interesting.
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Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber
I'm actually hoping some folks will weigh in on the limitations of that simulation. Mostly that I don't account for teams who are genuinely worth negative points.
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I've also been wondering recently how many teams will "hurt" their alliances this year. I imagine that there might be more teams with negative OPRs this year than we have seen in years past. The fact that penalties now subtract from your alliance's score instead of adding to the opposing alliance's score will lower OPR values overall, but it seems that there will be less penalties this year than in 2014. Additionally, there is the inevitable fact that stacks will get knocked over by robots.
According to the 2834 scouting database, last year 151/2696 teams (roughly 6%) had a max OPR that was negative. In 2013, 249/2509 teams (10%) had a max OPR that was negative. Interesting that there were more negative teams in 2013 than in 2014, I might have guessed that it would be the other way around.
I'm not quite sure how to use this data for a reasonable estimate, but it seems unlikely to me that the percentage for this year will be less than the percentage from 2013, since penalties were not subtractive in 2013 and it was difficult to de-score any points that year*. However, robots that could not do much more than drive that year were often assigned to be defenders, which will not be an option this year, raising OPRs all around. My guess is that the percentage of negative OPRs this year will be a bit higher than 10%.
*Although I do recall a few robots inadvertently knocking their own partners off of pyramids.