[Boltman]

OPR seems this year to be statistically "input flawed" as a reliable scouting metric (Was much better previous games) . Too many every match/event variables at play for a single equation to define accurately individual offensive ranking..as in past years. Where individual bots were tracked more accurately in past games.

There are many bots with High QA 50+ that score <6 solo every match...by pure chance of other two partners being stronger masking their deficiency. Static scouting is only way to see this in action...this year.

When QA is a major variable you need many more data points than 10-20 to infer a reliable OPR in a game like this where only average is a major input variable (as well as tote, noodle, RC all averages of avg alliance)...to easy to skew QA (and other inputs) making using it troubling from a statistical perspective.

You simply need more "based on random alliance averages" data points for OPR to be more accurate at prediction this year. 100-300 matches would be better, in a game like this. Which is impossible even if all teams went to all matches within 1000 miles.

My advice this year as a scout..."eyes on bots." Take any OPR with a grain of salt.

We have all but only 10 bots personally scouted on their play and tendencies in RR for Ventura this weekend and the same in SD after. After all its really solo contribution added to your alliance score...what they do is what they do. They are mostly very predictable. Because many were very specifically designed to do their task repetitively. Not a lot of versatile bots out there. They are either good or bad predictably at the task they do.

There is a limited set off bots each team competes against in events (30-60):

Watch 2-3 matches on each that you face...compare to posted results. Easy to do...over a few weeks unless you play early.

In Worlds perhaps the fact you cannot possibly know out of 3000 who you will team up with and face ..OPR becomes more valuable. But again there are only 75 in a division and could possibly be done with archived video...once you find out who is in your division.