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Unread 12-05-2015, 23:29
Rachel Lim Rachel Lim is offline
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Re: "standard error" of OPR values

Just to check that I understand this correctly: standard error is basically the standard deviation from the "correct" value, and you're asking if OPR values have this distribution from the "correct" value (i.e. the given OPR)?

Also, is OPR is calculated by taking t1+t2+t3 = redScore1, t4+t5+t6 = blueScore1, etc. and then solving that series of linear equations?


I would guess it would depend on what you mean by OPR. I always assumed, perhaps incorrectly, that OPR was the solution of the above calculations, and thus it is just a number, neither correct nor incorrect.

If OPR is meant to indicate the actual scoring ability, this would change. However I'm not sure how to figure out how many points a team contributes--if one team stacked 6 totes and another capped, does the first get 12 and the second 24, or each get 36, or something other combination?

I suppose one way to do it would be to take the difference between a team's OPR and 1/3 of their alliance's points from each match they played in, and see the change in that difference. Comparing that between teams will be tricky, since the very top/bottom teams will have a greater difference than an average one. Similarly, looking at a team's OPR after X matches and 1/3 of the match X+1 score would be interesting but would also have that problem.


(Or I could just be very confused about what OPR and standard error really are--I've tried to piece together what I've read here and on the internet but haven't formally taken linear algebra or statistics.)
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