Thread: "standard error" of OPR values
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Unread 13-05-2015, 13:52
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Re: "standard error" of OPR values
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne TenBrink View Post
Has anyone ever attempted a validation study to compare "actual contribution" (based on scouting data or a review of match video) to OPR values? It seems like this would be fairly easy and accurate for Recycle Rush (and very difficult for Aerial Assist). I did that with our performance at one district event and found the result to be very close (OPR=71 vs "Actual"= 74).

In some ways, OPR is probably more relevant than "actual contribution". For example, a good strategist in Aerial Assist could extract productivity from teams that might otherwise just drive around aimlessly. This sort of contribution would show up in OPR, but a scout wouldn't attribute it to them as an "actual contribution".

It would be interesting to see if OPR error was the same (magnitude and direction) for low, medium, and high OPR teams, etc.
This is a different question than whether the OPR accurately measures true contribution. (Another benefit of that exercise however is to determine whether the OPR estimate has a bias, e.g., related to relative scoring). There will always be error terms around the OPR parameter, so the question to be answered is what are the statistical properties of those error terms.
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