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Unread 16-05-2015, 14:31
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Re: "standard error" of OPR values

Quote:
Originally Posted by wgardner View Post
Here's a poor-man's approach to approximating the error of the OPR value calculation (as opposed to the prediction error aka regression error):

1. Collect all of a team's match results.

2. Compute the normal OPR.

3. Then, re-compute the OPR but excluding the result from the first match.

4. Repeat this process by removing the results from only the 2nd match, then only the 3rd, etc. This will give you a set of OPR values computed by excluding a single match. So for example, if a team played 6 matches, there would be the original OPR plus 6 additional "OPR-" values.

5. Compute the standard deviation of the set of OPR- values. This should give you some idea of how much variability a particular match contributes to the team's OPR. Note that this will even vary team-by-team.

Thoughts?
This is interesting but not what I'm looking for.

The question is this thread is how (or if) a standard, textbook, widely-used, statistically valid "standard error" (as mention by Citrus Dad and quoted in the original post in this thread) can be computed for OPR from official FRC qual match results data unsupplemented by manual scouting data or any other data.


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