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Unread 16-05-2015, 18:07
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Re: "standard error" of OPR values

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ether View Post
This is interesting but not what I'm looking for.

The question is this thread is how (or if) a standard, textbook, widely-used, statistically valid "standard error" (as mention by Citrus Dad and quoted in the original post in this thread) can be computed for OPR from official FRC qual match results data unsupplemented by manual scouting data or any other data.


I guess I'm not sure how you're defining "standard error." I assume you're trying to get some confidence on the OPR value itself (not in how well the OPR can predict match results, which is the other error I referred to previously).

The method I propose above gives a standard deviation measure on how much a single match changes a team's OPR. I would think this is something like what you want. If not, can you define what you're looking for more precisely?

Also, rather than taking 200 of 254 matches and looking at the standard deviation of all OPRs, I suggest just removing a single match (e.g., compute OPR based on 253 of the 254 matches) and looking at how that removal affects only the OPRs of the teams involved in the removed match.

So if you had 254 matches in a tournament, you'd compute 254 different sets of OPRs (1 for each possible match removal) and then look at the variability of the OPRs only for the teams involved in each specific removed match.

This only uses the actual qualification match results, no scouting or other data as you want.
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