Quote:
Originally Posted by wgardner
Why do you think they would "certainly not be virtually identical"?
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Because there's no reason whatsoever to believe there's virtually no variation in consistency of performance from team to team.
Manual scouting data would surely confirm this.
Consider the following thought experiment.
Team A gets actual scores of 40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40 in each of its 10 qual matches.
Team B gets actual scores of 0,76,13,69,27,23,16,88,55,33
The simulation you described assigns virtually the same standard error to their OPR values.
If what is being sought is a metric which is somehow correlated to the real-world trustworthiness of the OPR
for each individual team (I
thought that's what Citrus Dad was seeking), then the standard error coming out of the simulation is not that metric.
My guess is that the 0.1 number is just measuring how well your random number generator is conforming to the sample distribution you requested.