Quote:
Originally Posted by RyanCahoon
I'd love to see somebody actually quantitatively compare the predictive power of all of these different metrics across the various games. For a given year, take the games from the first half of every competition's qualifying rounds, compute a stat for every team and measure it's ability to predict the outcome of the second half of the qualifying matches.
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After week 1 this year, normal OPR was the best (non-manual) score predictor. That's what I used throughout the season, though by CMP a different metric could have been better.
More useful than predicting the outcome of the second HALF of the matches is taking the Day 1 matches and seeing how they predict the Day 2 matches. This is more than half the matches, so it's bound to be a *better* predictor than half the matches because of the increased sample size too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes
I'm having trouble understanding this sentence. Could you please clarify?
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I believe he's talking about using an Opponent's WLT to determine how much defense (or in 2015, can starvation, noodles in landfill, etc) was encountered in the matches a team's OPR was based off of.
I don't suspect defensive ability and WLT have a very strong correlation though. I'd like to see that correlation proved before I try to "normalize" a team's OPR with this metric.