Quote:
Originally Posted by Ether
Attached are A, b, and T for 2015 OPR, CCWM, and WMPR.
Also introducing a funky new metric, EPR, which uses 3 simultaneous equations for each match:
1) r1+r2+r3-b1-b2-b3 = RS-BS
2) r1+r2+r3=RS
3) b1+b2+b3=BS
... and solves all the equations simultaneously.
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Hi Ether,
I like this idea of solving all 3 equations simultaneously. WMPR is a good improvement over CCWM because winning margin depends on who you are playing against (except in 2015), but I think EPR is even better. I will adopt it after you guys finish your validation on how well it predicts outcome.
I like this EPR because it is one number instead of two. It can replace both OPR and WMPR. The problem with OPR is similar to the problem with CCWM. It does not take into account of who the opponents were. If you play against stronger opponents, you may not be able to score as many points, especially in those years with limited game pieces. Equation 1 will take care of that. It will improve on the line fitting. To me, I would interpret EPR as how many points a team will be able to score with typical opponents on the field. This eliminates the error of match schedule strength due to luck of the draw. A team may have higher than normal score because they faced weaker opponents more often. That would skew the OPR numbers. I think EPR would be more accurate in predicting match scores. Would somebody like to test it out?
Another reason I like EPR is that it is easier to compute without all that
SVD stuff. I would prefer high school students to be able to understand and implement this on their own.