Quote:
Originally Posted by AGPapa
I propose that instead of having the average be zero, the average should be how many points the average robot scored at that event. (So we should add the average event score / 3 to every team's WMPR). This will smooth out the differences between each event.
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Thoughts?
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Yes, this makes sense if you want to compare results across events. Sounds like a good idea, though perhaps then it needs a different name as it's not a WM measure? Also, if I continue to find that scaling the WMPRs down does a better job at winning margin prediction, that needs to be done before the average event score/3 is added in.
I'll try to get to the verification on testing data in the next day or so.
I personally like this normalized WMPR (nWMPR?) better than EPR as the interpretation is cleaner: we're just trying to predict the winning margin. EPR is trying to predict the individual scores and the winning margin and weighting the residuals all the same. It's a bit more ad-hoc. On the other hand, one could look into which weightings result in the best overall result in terms of whatever measure of result folks care about.
I still am most interested in how well a metric predicts the winning margin of a match (and in my FTC android apps I also hope to include an estimate of "probability of victory" from this which incorporates the expected winning margin and the standard deviation of that expectation along with the assumption of a normally distributed residual). And using these for possible scouting/ alliance selection aids (especially for lower picks). But other folks may be interested in using them for other things.