[Citrus Dad]

I've been watching this thread because I'm really interested in a more useful statistic for scouting--a true DPR. I think this path may be a fruitful way to arrive at that point.

Currently the DPR doesn't measure how a team's defensive performance causes the opposing alliance to deviate from its predicted OPR. The current DPR calculation simply assumes that the OPRs of the opposing alliances are randomly distributed in a manner that those OPRs are most likely to converge on the tournament average. Unfortunately that's only true if a team plays a very large number of matches that capture potential alliance combinations. Instead we're working with a small sample set that is highly influenced by the individual teams included in each alliance.

Running the DPR separately across the opposing alliances becomes a two-stage estimation problem in which 1) the OPRs are estimated for the opposing alliance and 2) the DPR is estimated against the predicted OPRs. The statistical properties become interesting and the matrix quite large.

I'll be interested to see how this comes out. Maybe you can report the DPRs as well.