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Unread 23-06-2015, 21:32
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Re: "standard error" of OPR values

Quote:
Originally Posted by Citrus Dad View Post
It's been known that OPR doesn't reflect actual scoring ability. It's a regression analysis that computes the implied "contribution" to scores. Unfortunately no one ever posts the estimates' standard errors
Getting back to this after a long hiatus.

If you are asking for individual standard error associated with each OPR value, no one ever posts them because the official FRC match data doesn't contain enough information to make a meaningful computation of those individual values.

In a situation, unlike FRC OPR, where you know the variance of each observed value (either by repeated observations using the same values for the predictor variables, or if you are measuring something with an instrument of known accuracy) you can put those variances into the design matrix for each observation and compute a meaningful standard error for each of the model parameters.

Or if, unlike FRC OPR, you have good reason to believe the observations are homoscedastic, you can compute the variance of the residuals and use that to back-calculate standard errors for the model parameters. If you do this for FRC data the result will be standard errors which are very nearly the same for each OPR value... which is clearly not the expected result.


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