Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard
But I think that's part of the problem for me: I'm trying to look too deeply into a game that we don't have that much time to play. The game isn't going to evolve the way other sports do over years, it's going to evolve over 8 weeks of competition (and evolve immensely), and will be limited by size restrictions, power restrictions, etc, not just by player skill and ingenuity.
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Bingo. Teams get better, but overall they start out pretty bad. So, when I make my spreadsheets I also do run through a "what's likely" analysis too. My general rule? If I think an action will take 3 seconds I multiply it by pi because I'm an idiot and tend to overestimate skill. (Or teams just generally suck)
I also do what I call sensitivity analysis: at what point do strategies become worthless because you're taking too long to do them?