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Unread 16-07-2015, 21:49
Jeremy Germita's Avatar
Jeremy Germita Jeremy Germita is offline
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AKA: wood is good. plastic is fantastic.
FRC #5012 (Gryffingear) / (Antelope Valley FIRST Teams)
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Rookie Year: 2007
Location: Lancaster, CA
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Using this match schedule and teams' most recent OPR's, I've run Monte Carlo simulations for IRI 2015.

I've adjusted the randomization model from +- 10 points to +- 36 points to adjust for IRI rule changes, but other than that the assumptions made are about the same.

This is just for fun. I don't expect these to even remotely line up with actual rankings given the craziness of IRI and its rule changes and the amount of time teams have had to improve.

Here are the results after 10,000 iterations:
Code:
Event: iri
Teams found: 67
Iterations: 10000
Number	AvgRank	Max	Min
195	3.4832	46.0	1.0
1023	4.3134	55.0	1.0
118	4.6559	48.0	1.0
2337	7.4331	60.0	1.0
4143	13.2243	64.0	1.0
2122	13.9563	62.0	1.0
107	14.3209	62.0	1.0
2468	14.7406	64.0	1.0
1730	14.9395	65.0	1.0
1114	15.7037	62.0	1.0
111	18.9118	65.0	1.0
33	19.0198	65.0	1.0
316	19.1749	65.0	1.0
1720	20.9217	67.0	1.0
548	21.341	66.0	1.0
829	21.4001	66.0	1.0
3641	21.5216	65.0	1.0
2056	21.8729	67.0	1.0
379	22.777	67.0	1.0
624	23.0898	67.0	1.0
3130	25.7827	67.0	1.0
4678	25.9262	67.0	1.0
5254	26.2098	66.0	1.0
2502	26.447	66.0	1.0
2590	27.7846	67.0	1.0
1806	29.9685	67.0	1.0
1756	30.9229	67.0	1.0
245	31.5831	67.0	1.0
469	33.8646	67.0	1.0
234	34.058	67.0	1.0
1619	34.1976	67.0	1.0
744	34.8391	67.0	1.0
330	35.124	67.0	1.0
3824	35.3259	67.0	1.0
503	35.5829	67.0	1.0
1325	35.8103	67.0	1.0
5188	35.9743	67.0	2.0
217	36.5755	67.0	1.0
1640	36.7092	67.0	2.0
67	36.7751	67.0	2.0
4039	37.208	67.0	2.0
384	38.0809	67.0	2.0
1625	39.9881	67.0	1.0
2338	40.6733	67.0	1.0
340	43.5065	67.0	3.0
2826	44.3424	67.0	1.0
27	44.6912	67.0	3.0
20	44.9441	67.0	2.0
68	45.8721	67.0	3.0
1741	46.3385	67.0	4.0
48	46.6938	67.0	3.0
16	47.4771	67.0	3.0
1310	47.8421	67.0	3.0
179	48.0229	67.0	2.0
1711	48.2938	67.0	4.0
5413	48.3966	67.0	4.0
2614	49.1928	67.0	2.0
1218	49.2469	67.0	4.0
1923	49.303	67.0	3.0
2867	50.0946	67.0	3.0
233	50.1697	67.0	4.0
1024	52.5114	67.0	7.0
225	56.6266	67.0	8.0
226	58.1545	67.0	9.0
1657	59.8648	67.0	12.0
3015	60.4362	67.0	8.0
2512	63.7653	67.0	16.0
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Drive Coach Team 5012 Gryffingear / Antelope Valley FIRST teams / EWCP - (2013 - Current)
Student / Driver / Programmer / CAD - FRC Team 399: Eagle Robotics / FTC Team 72: GarageBots - (2009 - 2013)
Los Angeles Region FTC FTA/CSA/Head Ref
[FF] FIRST Pick
2014 FTC Los Angeles Regional Compass Award Winner.

2017 - Sacramento Regional / Las Vegas Regional
2016 - Los Angeles Regional Creativity + Winners (1197, 987, 5012) / Las Vegas Regional Team Spirit + SF (5012, 5851, 5049) / Galileo Subdivision
2015 - Inland Empire QF (597, 5012, 4413) / Las Vegas Imagery + Winners (148, 987, 5012) / Newton Subdivision and World Champions (118, 1678, 1671, 5012)
2014 - Inland Empire Rookie All Star + Highest Rookie Seed + SF (2339, 1967, 5012) / Las Vegas Rookie All Star / Galileo Division Imagery
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