[araniaraniratul]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

Yes, that's the added step that's needed. As mentioned below, look at the equations on p. 15 and p. 19 to see how to do this.

I also like the MMSE adjustment. However, one important point. This is a Bayesian estimation method. The errors terms around initial "guess" is normally distributed (or log normally since scores are constrained at zero), and presumably so are the regression results errors. But adding together 2 normal distributions does not result in a normal distribution. It's been 20 years since I looked at this issue, but there is software out there that correctly computes the resulting distribution.

Is it because they're not independent? (Unless my understanding of random variables is way off) Otherwise I feel like two independent random variables (normal) in summation still leaves you with a new normal random variable. In terms of software, I know that numpy does a ton of those corrections, but not sure about this specific one.