[Spoam]

Alright, since I was wondering the likelihood of all your gift cards being claimed and since doing FRC-related statistical analysis is basically what I do for fun, I decided to crunch some numbers over it. After a lot of math, this is what I found:

In order for it to be more likely than not that all 5 of your Tortuga prizes are claimed, the mean probability of a robot getting stuck in any given match needs to be at least ~6.3% (i.e. the average robot would have to get stuck at least once every 16ish matches).*

From my prior knowledge in FRC, I would say this number is conservative enough that all 5 of your prizes will almost certainly be taken by the end of the season.

*To calculate this figure I assumed 127 competitions with 75 qual matches each on average (I eyeballed this average from TBA event pages). Also, this model relies on some tenuous assumptions about the distribution of likeliness to tortuga so, uh, don't use it to place any bets.