Quote:
Originally Posted by Spoam
Alright, since I was wondering the likelihood of all your gift cards being claimed and since doing FRC-related statistical analysis is basically what I do for fun, I decided to crunch some numbers over it. After a LOT of math, this is what I found:
In order for it to be more likely than not that all 5 of your Tortuga prizes are claimed, the mean probability of a robot getting stuck in any given match needs to be at least ~6.3% (i.e. the average robot would have to get stuck at least once every 16ish matches).*
From my prior knowledge in FRC, I would say this number is conservative enough that all 5 of your prizes will almost certainly be taken by the end of the season.
*To calculate this figure I assumed 127 competitions with 75 qual matches each on average (I eyeballed this average from TBA event pages).
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Is that implying all Tortugas are caught on video right away?