Quote:
Originally Posted by Spoam
In order for it to be more likely than not that all 5 of your Tortuga prizes are claimed, the mean probability of a robot getting stuck in any given match needs to be at least ~6.3% (i.e. the average robot would have to get stuck at least once every 16ish matches).*
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I believe your calculations assume that tortugas are independent events. I think it highly likely that double and triple tortugas will be more common than the number of singles would indicate. The 3T from Palmetto is a great example of why this would be the case - none of those robots would have been a single tortuga. Only by interacting did the robots become immobile. The double tortuga reported by Hitchhiker 42 sounds like a bit of a cascade as well.