Quote:
Originally Posted by sastoller
I think using the real match data (microbuns method) to add the +20 for a breach and +25 for a capture to Qual matches is the best way to calculate this new OPR (I call it "Modified OPR"). It's also a pretty simple modification to my OPR calculation script since I already have the data columns there for breach and capture. Obviously I only add this to the final score if the match is not an elims match. This is most accurate to how elims matches are truly scored. I prefer to let the calculated contribution to tower weakening and defense breaching speak for itself in the analysis of those columns by themselves.
Code:
(if breach=='true')score+=20;} if(capture=='true'){score+=25;}
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The problem with this is that it does a horrible job of predicting capture points in playoffs at weak events. Take the Lake Superior regional as an example. There was only a single qual capture at Lake Superior. The number 1 seed captured in 4 of their 6 playoff matches, for a capture rate of 67%, but their expected capture rate found by summing their individual capture OPRs would be just 12%. There are just simply not enough captures happening at some events for "OPR capture" to mean anything useful. In the worst case, like at Palmetto, "OPR capture" can not distinguish teams at all because there were zero captures in quals.
My guess is that my eOPR1 would do better than eOPR2/modified OPR at predicting playoff scores at weaker events like this, although I have not done a thorough investigation.
Quote:
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One thing I would like to hear opinions on is if eliminations match data should be use in OPR calculations. My results change significantly when I factor in elims data for my Modified OPR and Regular OPR. See below (sorted by 'Mod OPR Qual'). OPRs tend to drop for robots in elims, probably due to the "cap" for breach points, the alliance partnership with two other good teams, and the fact that defense is a bigger factor in elims.
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I believe that it would be unwise to use elimination data for these calculations for the reasons listed by Ed Law.