I was beaten to the punch on making point predictions, so I'm happy to
defer to Eric on this one.
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Originally Posted by sodizzle
UGH I'm so triggered right now! We didn't mean to break!!!! Haha just kidding 
We've had two completely separate gearbox problems that I've never seen before, and from who I've talked to, they've never seen or heard of either. Hopefully we've fixed the problem (again) for this weekends competition. |
I needle because I care
Was great to see BX back on track at Livonia.
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Originally Posted by Richard Wallace
Time to add 27 to this list. |
Most definitely!
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Originally Posted by JABot67
Do you think the batter shooters from MI have a chance to win against the 1678s and 2056es of the world who have dialed in shots from the outer works? What would be some key plays that would tip the balance to either side in that matchup?
Also, do you think it's possible for 67 to start shooting from the outer works? Their vision targeting has been improving, and I know they posted about redesigning their shooter to get a more accurate shot.
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There have only been a handful of events with world-class matchups, so it's hard to say which style of shooting will be dominant.
Let's look at batter shooting. It's easy to say that predictable shooting location leads to easy defense. Einstein 2014 is an interesting case study. A couple big factors made shots easier: open field, wide goal. Of course, a shooter had a minimum of one robot playing defense and often two. In most situations, a shooter facing a single defender (or two defenders but having a blocker) was able to break free of the defense and score, either by taking a quick shot (like 1114) or getting to the hard to defend place (like 254). The batter is a similar hard to defend place that makes lining up easier (especially once you consider the plastic barriers). Although the field is much less open, I think this year will be pretty similar in that even batter shooters should be able to get around defense with a small amount of difficulty, and should be able to get an accurate shot off once they're there.
Next, let's look at outerworks shooting. You mention 2056 and 1678 specifically, so I'll focus on them (folks who've watched them more than I have, feel free to chime in). They're both pretty d*** accurate from the outer works. I'd say 2056 is a whisker more accurate. The important point is that neither were perfect. 1678 in particular had a match at Sacramento where their shooting accuracy looking positively human. To me it seemed like their auto-targeting wasn't working. I'm deathly afraid of that happening at
any particular moment, but especially on Einstein where conditions are very different from other fields. I imagine teams will get more time than usual on the field before Einstein matches begin, plus I'd bet those elite teams will have SOPs for retuning vision.
2056 is definitely great at the outer works shot, but when left undefended, they take a midrange shot, and I think that's telling. Any good team will tell you to minimize the number of places you take shots from. Why would they choose to take the shorter shot? Maybe it's a bit faster to line up, maybe it's really the same shot just from slightly closer, maybe it's significantly accurate. No matter what, it's an indication that outer works shooting is not optimal, it's just what they do to avoid defense.
It should also be noted that once your alliance has one batter shooter, the second batter shooter gets defended a whole lot less. Additionally, most of the outer works shots have been from directly in front of the middle goal (though with vision, it's not like they have to). If you have two teams that prefer the same spot, you could have some interference problems.
Altogether, I think batter shooting will be a legit strategy seasonlong. I'm not sure I saw the accuracy concerns 67 mentioned, so trying to move the shot back might be the real focus. It's always hard to redesign a system midseason because you have all the surrounding systems (in this case, the intake and shooter) as design constraints. I think it's also clear that vision targeting is absolutely critical for outer works shooting. Maybe 67 will have that in place, but they're also a team that had trouble crossing in auton every match, so you can draw your own conclusions.