I think the numbers that you have are not terribly far off for New England.
I've also had a script to do this for some time. It's set up to automatically come up with estimates for any of the districts without any magic numbers. I've previously shared it here:
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...3&postcount=13
Appearantly that's not easy to find though so I've put it on github:
https://github.com/errorcodexero/standing_predictor I welcome pull requests.
For comparison, here's the output that I get:
Key:
Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 48
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 99
Best estimate: 62
{'bubble': 43, 'out': 32, '~in': 38, '~out': 61, 'in': 7}
0 in 1058 - PVC Pirates
1 in 319 - Big Bad Bob
2 in 78 - AIR STRIKE
3 in 4905 - Andromeda One
4 in 230 - Gaelhawks
5 in 5813 - Morpheus
6 in 1831 - Screaming Eagles
7 ~in 1768 - Robo Chiefs
8 ~in 228 - GUS Robotics
9 ~in 176 - Aces High
10 ~in 88 - TJ(Squared)
11 ~in 4048 - Redshift
12 ~in 190 - Gompei and the H.E.R.D.
13 ~in 1153 - Robo-Rebels
14 ~in 1729 - Team Inconceivable!
15 ~in 155 - The Technonuts
16 ~in 95 - Grasshoppers
17 ~in 4761 - The Robockets
18 ~in 131 - C.H.A.O.S.
19 ~in 2370 - iBots
20 ~in 2648 - Infinite Loop
21 ~in 5962 - perSEVERE
22 ~in 4909 - Bionics
23 ~in 1519 - Mechanical Mayhem
24 ~in 2876 - Devilbotz
25 ~in 558 - Elm City Robo Squad
26 ~in 2064 - The Panther Project
27 ~in 1124 - UberBots
28 ~in 5846 - Southcoast Corsairs
29 ~in 1512 - The Metal Vidsters
30 ~in 177 - Bobcat Robotics
31 ~in 2067 - Apple Pi
32 ~in 885 - THE GREEN TEAM
33 ~in 238 - Cruisin' Crusaders
34 ~in 125 - NUTRONs
35 ~in 195 - CyberKnights
36 bubble 213 - The Dirty Birds
37 ~in 6153 - Blue Crew
38 ~in 1099 - DiscoTechs
39 ~out 5112 - The Gongoliers
40 ~out 1277 - The Robotomies
41 ~in 839 - Rosie Robotics
42 ~out 4055 - NRG4055
43 ~out 1735 - Green Reapers
44 ~out 246 - Overclocked
45 ~in 3930 - SMART Spruce Mountain Area Ro...
46 ~out 4151 - SCRAP
47 ~out 138 - Entropy
48 ~out 2342 - Team Phoenix
49 bubble 6161 - Equilibrium
50 ~out 1786 - The Robotics Team
51 ~in 4564 - Orange Chaos
52 ~in 5687 - The Outliers
53 ~in 126 - Gael Force
54 bubble 5686 - Wirecats
55 ~out 501 - The PowerKnights
56 ~out 4473 - Delta Prime
57 ~in 133 - B.E.R.T
58 out 6201 - The Highlanders
59 ~out 348 - Norwell Robotics
60 bubble 3461 - Operation PEACCE Robotics
61 ~in 175 - Buzz Robotics
62 out 3958 - Schrodinger's Cat
63 out 157 - AZTECHS
64 bubble 2084 - Robots by the C
65 out 4929 - Maroon Monsoon
66 bubble 181 - Birds Of Prey
67 out 2836 - Team Beta
68 bubble 467 - The Colonials
69 out 151 - Tough Techs
70 bubble 5746 - Human Error
71 out 3719 - STEM Whalers
72 out 3205 - Patriots
73 out 4311 - Swampscott Currents
74 out 1721 - Tidal Force
75 out 1071 - Team Max
76 bubble 166 - Chop Shop
77 bubble 1699 - Robocats
78 bubble 3182 - Athena's Warriors
79 out 1350 - The Rambots
80 out 509 - Red Storm
81 out 3323 - Potential Energy
82 out 4097 - Devilbots
83 bubble 2877 - LigerBots
84 out 3236 - TRIFORCE
85 bubble 3609 - Duct Tape Dragons
86 out 4474 - Silver Circuit
87 bubble 3467 - Windham Windup
88 bubble 999 - MechaRAMS
89 bubble 4557 - FullMetal Falcons
90 bubble 58 - The Riot Crew
91 out 178 - The 2nd Law Enforcers
92 bubble 236 - Techno-Ticks
93 out 4176 - Iron Tigers
94 bubble 1100 - The T-Hawks
95 bubble 5556 - Carriagetown Robotics
96 out 4169 - Warrior Robotics
97 bubble 5902 - The Wire Clippers
98 bubble 172 - Northern Force
99 out 5958 - Blue Wave Robotics
100 bubble 3464 - Sim-City
101 bubble 4908 - Duxbury Dragons
102 bubble 2168 - Aluminum Falcons
103 bubble 5752 - Beverly Panthers
104 bubble 716 - Who'sCTEKS
105 bubble 811 - Cardinals
106 bubble 69 - HYPER
107 bubble 6224 - The Saints
108 bubble 5000 - Hammerheads
109 out 1517 - The Lumberjacks
110 out 1474 - Master Link Militia
111 bubble 5422 - Stormgears FRC
112 ~out 5856 - Bullbots
113 bubble 121 - Rhode Warriors
114 bubble 237 - Black Magic Robotics
115 bubble 1991 - Dragons
116 bubble 4546 - ShockWave
117 ~out 5844 - Phoenix Tech
118 bubble 1073 - The Force Team
119 out 3566 - Gone Fishin'
120 ~out 5969 - English Skunkworks
121 bubble 3146 - GRANBY GRUNTS
122 bubble 4906 - The Collective
123 out 5494 - Bizarbots Robotics
124 bubble 2170 - Titanium Tomahawks
125 out 5400 - WARP
126 bubble 3654 - TechTigers
127 out 1307 - Robosaints
128 bubble 571 - Team Paragon
129 bubble 3466 - Vikings Robotics
130 out 97 - Bionic Beef
131 ~out 6172 - Team Jupiter
132 ~out 2713 - iRaiders
133 out 1247 - Robotics of Kearsarge (ROK)
134 out 1973 - Brighton Burning Tiger
135 ~out 5506 - Viking Landers
136 ~out 1740 - Ledyard Cyber Colonels
137 ~out 5491 - Cognitive Hazard
138 ~out 5471 - W.Hi.R.R.
139 ~out 5459 - Ipswich TIGERS (Technologicall...
140 ~out 3525 - The Nuts & Bolts of Fury
141 ~out 5122 - robOTies
142 ~out 2079 - 4H ALARM Robotics
143 ~out 4572 - BArlow RobAutics
144 ~out 3623 - Terror Bots
145 ~out 5735 - Control Freaks
146 ~out 5563 - Phalanx
147 out 5163 - The Aluminum Warriors
148 ~out 3780 - Robot Unicorns
149 ~out 4925 - The Resistance
150 ~out 1922 - Oz-Ram
151 out 1027 - Project Jabberwocky
152 ~out 2785 - Prometheus
153 ~out 1289 - Gearheadz
154 ~out 3634 - Spark City
155 ~out 2262 - Robo-Panthers
156 ~out 4628 - Sintian Robotics
157 ~out 5633 - Hyde Phoenix
158 ~out 4796 - Cyber Dragons
159 ~out 1761 - STEAMpunk Tigers
160 ~out 173 - RAGE (Robotics And Gadget Engi...
161 ~out 4041 - Iron Tigers
162 ~out 2423 - The KwarQs
163 ~out 4042 - Murphy's Lawyers
164 ~out 4555 - Sprocketology
165 ~out 1965 - Firebirds
166 ~out 3718 - Junkyard Battalion
167 ~out 5129 - Digital Devils
168 ~out 3451 - The ANOMALY
169 ~out 1757 - Wolverines
170 ~out 5347 - Gryphons
171 ~out 3597 - Robo-Rangers
172 ~out 3585 - Rogue Robots of 4-H
173 ~out 3104 - The Cyber Rams
174 ~out 5265 - Radical Impact
175 ~out 4987 - MegaRams
176 ~out 4958 - Robocats
177 ~out 2523 - Tech Storm
178 ~out 5142 - Robo Dominators
179 ~out 3555 - Aluminati
180 ~out 663 - Robonauts