Quote:
Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery
218 out of 600 is much closer to 1/3 of spots than 1/2 of spots.
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I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.
Looking at Michigan for a second:
411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)
vs
Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)
0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs =
17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.
So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000
$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals