Quote:
Originally Posted by seg9585
I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.
Looking at Michigan for a second:
411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)
vs
Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)
0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.
So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000
$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals
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First off, the cost of 2 district events and a district championship is $9000 in registration fees.
Secondly, where are you getting that 65 team number? 65 teams would be a very large regional event, and probably shouldn't be used as a general proxy for regional qualification. Using the data from
this page, the average size of a regional event is only 51.5 teams.
Further still, you remove the rookies from the regional pool, while you don't remove the rookies from the district pool. While rookie qualification is proportionally smaller in the larger districts, it can significantly impact the odds in places like Indiana, Georgia, and North Carolina (where total team quantity is comparable to regional size). There's also the ranking point bonuses assigned to rookie (10 point) and sophomore (5 point) teams in the district system.
So, let's re-run the numbers.
210 non-rookie exclusive CMP spots are generated for the
1151 district teams. That's an 18.24% advancement odds for $9000 worth of registration fees, or
$493.22/% point.
A one-regional team competes for 5 non-rookie exclusive CMP spots out of 51.5 regional attendees. That's a 9.71% advancement odds for $5000 worth of registration fees, or
$514.93/% point.
Not factoring in wild cards (which improve regional teams' odds), a two-play team has an 18.48% advancement odds for $9000 worth of registration fees, or
$487.09/% point.