Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes
Obviously xOPR and ixOPR are possible without this constraint, since Eugene posted convergence graphs for Palmetto. What is the "other source for OPR initialization" that is used for cases like this?
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ether
I think you can just pick a reasonable number to seed the calculation, and let the 2x iteration take care of things from there.
|
What Ether said shares my view on the initialization.
In the graphs, I used 0 as the initialization, which I knew was a bad idea at the time. I've been trying out using the average match score for the event (up to the currently played match) as the initialization for teams without past events with better* results.
* There's a lot of "fuzzy math" going on here and I know OPR is a pretty poor metric for estimating a team's performance, whether there are few matches played or many matches played. I'm just curious to see how accurate one can expect match predictions to be using no other source of scouting data.