I have been developing my own Elo rating system for FRC over the past few years. The way it works differs from the one in this post enough that I thought it might by interesting to compare.
The data in my ratings are based on the history of each team dating back to 2002. At the end of each season, ratings are truncated 80% closer to the starting rating. Since 0 is the starting rating, a team with a score of 100 at the end of one season will begin the next season at 80. As this system uses matches from different games, it does not use win margins. A "K factor" of 32 is used in each match except in playoff matches, where the K factor is 16 (I too found that playoff matches seemed less predictive of future matches than qualification matches).
At the 2014
FIRST Championship, this system had a 0.190 Brier score, so it at least performs better than flipping a coin!
Anyways, enough methodology. Here are the current rankings:
Code:
Rank | Team | Rating
1. frc254 448
2. frc1519 421
3. frc225 388
4. frc1678 381
5. frc195 373
6. frc2481 368
7. frc118 364
8. frc987 345
9. frc2056 344
10. frc359 340
11. frc1023 336
12. frc1241 333
13. frc1114 333
14. frc525 329
15. frc148 327
16. frc1986 325
17. frc330 323
18. frc67 321
19. frc133 312
20. frc2767 310
21. frc33 306
22. frc3310 300
23. frc16 299
24. frc1806 299
25. frc4564 295
26. frc1501 292
27. frc125 290
28. frc3238 284
29. frc5172 278
30. frc971 278
31. frc368 276
32. frc494 275
33. frc5254 270
34. frc2122 269
35. frc2771 268
36. frc3130 267
37. frc1619 266
38. frc1024 266
39. frc4334 264
40. frc4469 263
41. frc3683 263
42. frc2974 262
43. frc179 259
44. frc3314 259
45. frc27 259
46. frc3230 256
47. frc1540 254
48. frc1318 254
49. frc1983 254
50. frc3990 253
51. frc3339 253
52. frc126 249
53. frc2451 247
54. frc107 245
55. frc1730 245
56. frc3604 244
57. frc2067 243
58. frc3824 243
59. frc2468 243
60. frc233 242
61. frc2590 242
62. frc4103 239
63. frc180 238
64. frc1918 237
65. frc973 236
66. frc1418 236
67. frc4488 236
68. frc25 236
69. frc3688 235
70. frc5050 235
71. frc70 234
72. frc2883 232
73. frc1261 232
74. frc2848 232
75. frc341 229
76. frc1296 228
77. frc1746 227
78. frc177 227
79. frc868 226
80. frc4039 226
81. frc3937 226
82. frc744 225
83. frc1717 222
84. frc2614 222
85. frc4188 221
86. frc85 220
87. frc2137 220
88. frc3309 219
89. frc217 219
90. frc1065 219
91. frc1425 218
92. frc4967 218
93. frc836 218
94. frc1126 217
95. frc1836 216
96. frc2471 216
97. frc3255 215
98. frc2338 215
99. frc231 214
100. frc4003 214
I will try to post the source code and some of the research I used to develop this system at some point after finals.
EDIT:
Here are the full rankings if anyone is interested.