Quote:
Originally Posted by Ether
FWIW
Ten million 75-team samples randomly drawn from 600-team CMP population; 2.5% had average OPR greater than Newton's.
Interestingly:
mean of max OPR of 600 CMP teams = 37.331
std dev of max OPR of 600 CMP teams = 12.287
predicted std dev of the means of the 75-team samples = 12.287/sqrt(75) = 1.4187
mean OPR of Newton = 40.1149
predicted Zscore of Newton = (40.1149-37.331)/1.4187 = 1.9623
area under normal curve between mean and 1.9623 = .4570
predicted probability = 0.5 - 0.4750 = 0.025 = 2.5%
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Interesting. 3 methods provide the same result (Ether's two methods and my method #1* 2.5% is 1 in 40)
I swear, I didn't look at Ether's answers before I did my simulation.
Dr. Joe J.
*which, I thought should be the better metric - method 2 was more tailored to be stacked in the way that Newton was stacked, so of course it is more rarely observedd.