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Unread 02-05-2016, 16:12
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Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:
Originally Posted by OccamzRazor View Post
The fact that Curie division had a 100% upset in the bracket proves that the scouting data those teams had were beyond poor. Besides the fact we knew the number one seed was unlikely to win because they were not a high goal shooter, it should have been much easier to make stronger alliances by checking for high goal consistency.

Our data which I think we can release soon will show that 3339 with a range of (2-9) and 836 with a range of (4-7) were the two best high goal shooters by our own judgement in the division and that nobody else caught it. They were both second picks which I find ridiculous considering the number of shots they made and with such consistency. Honorably mentions to 166 (1-7) and 3641(0-8) who are also really good high goal robots. What it came down to was how the robots were designed and if a defender could stop them, where they shot from, did they score 0s, etc.

It would have been terrifying if 876 and 3339 were on the same alliance and that almost happened!
I saw 1983's data, and the Skunks were the #2 highest producing bot (after a team with a scoring quirk). They were the #2 pick (and nearly #1). I expect that they offered their data and draft experience to the #1 captain. Note that none of those teams you listed could be around for the #1 seed, and that that 3339 was the #9 pick. So I wouldn't blame the scouting or drafting.

It was the result of the ranking system that rewarded getting just enough poiints to win low-scoring matches, two separate tasks that became integrated into elimination scoring. So 3 separate tasks became only in the playoffs. As a result schedule became even more important. An unbalanced schedule allowed certain teams to accomplish those tasks more easily thanks to the help of stronger teams, and stronger teams were hurt when an alliance mate failed to accomplish a task.

If 686 had not gotten back to the batter in time in the last match for 148, Hopper would have looked a lot more like Curie.
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