[AGPapa]

It always seemed clear that the North Super Regional in St. Louis would be much more competitive than the South Super Regional in Houston, but with the announcement of Ontario moving to the district system, I think that the NSR might be even more competitive than the single Championship this past year. The North has more competitive regions than average, and more district regions (which qualify better teams). The NSR will also have fewer waitlist spots than the single Championship had this past year.

Here are the district areas in both the North and the South (including both Ontario and Texas), with how many teams were in each area in 2016.

North    Teams
MAR	122
NE	182
MI	411
CHS	132
ON	137
IN	54
TOTAL	1038

South	Teams
TX	141
PCH	65
NC	57
PNW	156
TOTAL	419

Currently, the proportion of district teams that qualify for a Championship event is calculated simply by dividing the number of teams attending the championship by the total number of teams. So with 800 teams attending a Super Regional, and with last year’s team count of 3130, 25.6% of district teams will qualify to advance. This results in 265 teams from the North and 107 teams from the South. (Note that both the total FRC population and the population in the district areas will increase, so these team counts will be approximately correct).

I also count 18 regionals in the North (counting the new NY regional) and 26 regionals in the South. (Obviously these numbers will change slightly as new regionals get added). As it stands, this is 108 teams from the North and 156 teams from the South.

In total, the qualification spots for both super regionals is approximately shown in the tables below.

North	        Teams
Districts	265
Regionals	108
Hall of Fame	18
Ein Winners	3
E Inspiration	2
Rookie All-Star	1
Waitlist	3
TOTAL	        400

South	        Teams
Districts	107
Regionals	156
Hall of Fame	7
Ein Winners	1
E Inspiration	2
Rookie All-Star	2
Waitlist	125
TOTAL	        400

Not only does the North have deep and competitive regions like Ontario, Michigan and Indiana, but it also sends way more teams from district areas and almost no teams from the waitlist. Meanwhile the South has more waitlist teams than district teams!

FIRST will almost certainly change how districts qualify teams to limit how many teams the northern regions send, but even with those changes it seems clear that the North Super Regional will be far more competitive than the South Super Regional (and maybe even more competitive than the Championship this past year).