[Brian Maher]

I'm a bit late on responding to NonStopScouting's discussion questions, but here are my thoughts:

Originally Posted by NonStopScouting

• Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?

My answer here is whichever is more consistent. Controlling for accuracy, I would vote high goal auto due to:

• +1 tower damage
• the points are locked in at the beginning of the match. A robot dying mid-match may lose the climb but cannot lose auto points
• not scaling leaves time for an additional high goal or two, potentially making the high goal auto worth five points more than a scale without high goal auto.

Originally Posted by NonStopScouting

• How does batter, outerworks, turret, and midfield shooting stack up? Is a midfield turret bot more likely to be picked than an outerworks bot?

It obviously depends on the number/accuracy of high goals scored, but my general ranking looks something like this:

1. Un-defendable outerworks shooters. While I haven't personally seen any of the IRI teams demonstrate such a shot, I've talked to a few who claim to be able to shoot over a max height defender with 15" extension from the outer works.
2. Low catapult or tall outerworks shooters who are difficult to defend.
3. Batter shooters, because of how difficult they are to defend once they make it to the batter
4. Low non-catapult outer works shooters, because of how easy it can be to shut them down by sticking a defender with a wall in front of them.
5. Non-turret courtyard shooters, because of how easy it is for a defender to push them around

I have chosen not to list turret shooters on this ranking because I think their value ranges from 2-4 depending on their time to aim and their ability to evade defenders by means such as outerworks, batter, or 179/254/1241-style wall shots.

Originally Posted by NonStopScouting

• At what point would you put in a defense bot? For example there isn't much point using courtyard defense against three tall outerworks bots. Would you still run another type of defense or would you only run defense against 3 midfield shooters?

Like many questions, this one can be addressed with math. I calculated the teleop high goal component OPR for each of the teams in attendance, rounded to the nearest integer, and then simuated "alliances" assuming the robots who scored the most high goals seed highest, teams pick the team available who scores the most high goals, and there are no declines:

1) 8 8 5
2) 6 6 4
3) 6 6 4
4) 6 6 4
5) 5 5 4
6) 5 5 4
7) 5 5 4
8) 5 5 4

A few observations:

• The top alliances (1-4) will likely be able to capture with only two robots
• The lower alliances (5-8) may have a hard time capturing, even with all three robots on offense.
• The weakest shooter on a triple-offense strategy will average 4-5 high goals

From here, it can be concluded that defense is advisable if:

• an alliance can capture with two offense robots
• the defender can deny their opponents the capture OR deprive their opponents of 4-5 high goals

Based on this, playing defense will likely be advantageous for the top few alliances, and the lower alliances will need to have all three robots on offense to keep up with captures.
This simulation is obviously an over-simplification, ignoring autonomous goals and scaling points, but it gives a decent sense for the scoring ability of these alliances and how viable defense will be.