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Unread 23-08-2016, 12:50
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Re: Error bar of OPR in Stronghold

The margin of error (or error bar as you put it) would also vary depending on how high the average OPR for the event you are looking at is. Let's say Team 9001 that did not contribute any points to their alliances in quals has a low "true" OPR of 0. 9001 can have a negative OPR, but this does not reflect their "true OPR" of 0. Plus or minus the some of the OPRs below zero gives you a good idea of the margin of error for lower levels of play.

When an event averages more points, there is normally a larger margin in total score, and inherently makes for a larger margin of error. These higher levels of play are unlikely to have teams with "real" OPRs below zero, so you can't assume the margin of error is "plus or minus the lowest OPR below zero". Because the exact margin of error is not really important, I would just understand the margin of error at higher levels of play is a bit larger than the margin of error at lower levels of play.

However, I am making some assumptions that are not great if we wanted to calculate the margin of error to a more exact number.

In my opinion, the best way to determine the margin of error for OPR would be to look at DPR for an event where almost no one tried defense in quals. Off the top of my head, I don't know where this happened.

My guess is the margin of error for most events is plus or minus 7 at most with OPR only meaning anything compared to other teams if it is larger by a full point. Two decimal places definitely imply that OPR is much more accurate than it truly is.
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