[gblake]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

Jim shows in Point 3 of his paper that there is a reasonable correlation between OPR and team retention. Everyone knows that correlation is not causation, but the correlation does allow us to use OPR as a reasonable proxy for team retention. Teams that have low OPRs are also more likely to fold than teams with high OPRs. Likewise, teams that fold tend to have lower OPRs. Team retention data is probably near to as close as we can get to quantifying the "success of FRC teams" using publicly available data.

We can disagree about how specific policies will impact OPR distributions, team retention rates, or the correlation between the two, but at the present time, OPR does indeed seem to be a reasonable proxy for a given FRC team's success.

Nope - For exactly the reason you just gave. Correlation definitely is not causation. Both of the symptoms you mention, and more, could easily be symptoms of something more fundamental that would be essentially unaffected by the SBD. My belief is that this is the case. They are symptoms of a more fundamental problem that is insensitive to SBD machinations. In recent previous discussions I have explained that.

And
Eliminating a true- or pseudo-SBD is certainly not the only way to affect a struggling team's retention (and/or OPR); and IMO isn't the best way. For a reason to agree, see the recent post in this thread that describes some teachers' feelings.

Blake