[gblake]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

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I am fully 100% aware that correlation is not causation. However, gblake is going a step further by essentially denying that any correlation even exists in the present. This correlation could very well be diminished if we eliminated bag day, or it might increase. We don't know, what we do know though, is that OPR and team retention seem to be relatively strongly correlated in the present. If gblake wants to deny the usefulness of OPR as a metric for team success, that is fine, but it is fallacious to say that OPR is a poor metric for team success in the present just because it might not be correlated with team retention in the future.

I'm pretty sure I never said that the correlation doesn't exist. Quite the opposite.

Both of the symptoms you mention, and more, could easily be symptoms of something more fundamental that would be essentially unaffected by the SBD. My belief is that this is the case. They are symptoms of a more fundamental problem that is insensitive to SBD machinations. In recent previous discussions I have explained that.

I am saying that FIRST or anyone basing their actions on correlation rather than causation would be a mistake, because it would be gambling (give or take some windage that comes from what their gut tells them) rather than managing.

I am implying that FIRST or anyone else involved should (hopefully, quick like a bunny) dig deeper to find root causes, and also learn (as a result of experiments) which of several approaches to managing the subject create the best cocktail of improvement techniques.

It might turn out that eliminating tools-down in all its forms is the a part of the solution. I am skeptical of that, but during experiments, the chips will fall where they may.

Blake