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Unread 23-09-2016, 19:22
Rachel Lim Rachel Lim is offline
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Re: Chezy Champs 2016

For anyone interested in some last minute predictions/stats:

Using the preliminary match schedule and some component OPR / averages calculations, I ran some match predictions, which I used to predict overall rankings.

The ranking predictions, match predictions, and data used are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=176192934

It should allow you to manually change match results to update the rankings automatically, but I haven't fully tested it out.

Here's a visual representation of the effect the match schedule has on teams (green = predicted rank is higher than opr rank, red = opposite):




More details on my formulas:
- Winning alliances are predicted on the alliances' total OPR
- Auto points are predicted on the alliances' total auto OPR
- Capturing is predicted on the alliances' total boulder OPRs (auto low, auto high, teleop low, teleop high), with 10 as the cutoff. Challenging/scaling wasn't taken into account .
- Breaching is kind of messy and I think I messed up the calculations somewhere (but every alliance is predicted to breach anyway so it doesn't really matter), but I used 4 as the cutoff for breaching a defense, with an alliance needing 5 to guarantee a breach (since defenses are randomized)
- Teams are ranked with RPs as the 1st order sort and auto points as the 2nd

Good luck to everyone!
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