[Brian Maher]

Originally Posted by Oromus

So I have this script I've been using for the past year now that calculates CPR (Chairman's Power Rating) values for teams at varying events. It's been pretty accurate for regionals (multiple 2016 regionals had 100% prediction accuracy), so I'll post what it's predictions are for North and South Champs. For Champs, it generates a list of a couple "possible candidates" and then vaguely ranks them. All CCA winners from the past 10 years (that's as far as I've checked presently) have been on the possible candidate list my script generates. Note that rankings go off of the team's award history and can't take into account the "quality" of the team's outreaches and Chairman's submissions, and the teams processed by the script were all of the 2016 Chairman's winners that attended Champs.

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Interesting numbers, thank you for sharing! It's interesting to compare and contrast this list with the more qualitative evaluations shared on this thread. I'm a bit of a stat geek and have wondered about quantifying Chairman's chances for a while now (just for fun, of course), so I have a few questions:

1. How is CPR calculated? Is it based exclusively on Chairman's or are other awards and factors considered?
2. Exactly how accurate is it in predicting Regional/District/DCMP Chairman's Awards?
3. How does it do with predicting historic Championship Chairman's Award winners?
4. How much of an improvement is CPR over more naive metrics, such as total previous Chairman's Awards?
5. How well does it anticipate "outsiders" who have never won Chairman's receiving the award at the Regional/District level?

I'd love to tinker with your algorithm/code if you'd be willing to share.