[jee7s]

Along the lines of what Allen says, I think the focus has to shift from raw team count to team sustainability. Texas was on a pretty good run for about 3 years from 2011 to 2014 with fairly good retention. That was after the gushing cash from JCP and others in the 2009-2010 seasons, where retention was at about 50%. It seems we are in a similar phase now, though not nearly the loss rates of 2009-2010.

What do both situations have in common? Easy money. FIRST in Texas are doing a wonderful job supporting teams by administering grants. But, I think there's an element of sticker shock when the nearly fully paid for rookie season is followed by less and less funding in the years that follow. My suspicion is that teams don't take advantage of the rookie funding to secure early sponsors and partners, instead delaying that decision until funding starts to decline. Then, it's often too late to recover and get the money to keep the team operating.

And, let's not forget the economic situation in the state. Yes, those of us in metropolitan areas see growth and jobs, but you don't have to go too far to find a once thriving Texas town with 80% of the shops shuttered and little more than a courthouse to speak of. So, when teams from places like Lazbuddie, Shallowater, and Marfa drop off the list, it could be any number of reasons. But certainly those areas are not thriving economically and the loss of grants can mean the loss of a team.

So, back to the point, until we can sustain teams over 5 or more seasons with regularity, the District question in Texas remains open. With the added pull of resources toward Championship, I think the talk of going to Districts in 2018 is as unlikely as I said the move would be for 2017. Personally, I put the over/under at 2020. Call me a pessimist, but I think the rate of turnover this year coupled with the Houston Championship resource and money draw has pushed out the timeline substantially.