Quote:
Originally Posted by artK
Very nice tool you have here. 1114 is a fun team to watch the ELO for, which got quite high in 2010 until they threw the match.
Is it possible to adjust some of the parameters? Because the end of season reversion to the mean seams to small. 538's models for basketball and football have at least a 25% reversion to mean. 25% seems like a lower bound since each team loses a class of seniors and build a new robot each season, and the latter should really drives this model.
As an example of this, the highest ELO from 2016 was a 254 qual match at their first event, which is really a carryover from their 2015 season. But this might be inevitable in some cases, like 538 notes in their NBA model that teams with superstars like Bulls and Cavs maintained high ELOs for a while after Jordan and LeBron left. |
I chose the parameters I did based on what was the most predictive. I would have expected the mean reversion to be stronger, but 20% seemed to work the best. Here are the Brier scores for 2012-2014 for various mean reversion parameters.
Code:
100% 0.213986028
90% 0.210139727
80% 0.206626172
70% 0.203459364
60% 0.200667838
50% 0.198303146
40% 0.196450541
30% 0.19524134
20% 0.194865801
10% 0.195581409
0% 0.197702345