Quote:
Originally Posted by artK
What about the Brier score for longer windows? Between 2012 and 2014, the mean only reverts twice, and the relative error (|a-b|/|b|) between the Brier scores for different parameters is less than .1 in even the most extreme cases. With more reversions, that parameter should effect the accuracy more extremely, giving a better parameter estimate.
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2008-2016 quals and playoffs:
Code:
100% 0.201437771
90% 0.198323411
80% 0.195629645
70% 0.193352899
60% 0.191478127
50% 0.189986095
40% 0.188863874
30% 0.188124089
20% 0.187848762
10% 0.188296258
0% 0.190149139