Patiently awaiting a Karthik "the results of this poll are terrifying" post
Either way, for one ball cycle to be mathematically more valuable than a gear cycle at every point in any given match,* you'd need to be able to hold 40 points worth of balls. In low goal terms, that's 360 balls, AKA a mountain of balls larger than your robot. In other words, it's impossible to carry a match exclusively with low goals. Knowing the clientele of CD tells me nobody here is thinking about anything besides "How can I solo carry a match?"
*yes, I know you can do both in one cycle. This way of thinking simply dissects the cycle to see which part is more valuable at any given point in the match. I also know that gears have diminishing returns as you place more gears, in addition to a steadily increasing risk/reward tradeoff as the match progresses. The point still stands.