Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Johnson
There is a lot of talk about High Efficiency Goal Shooting that is, well, kinda crazy if you ask me.
There are a lot of threads discussing this or that aspect of H.E.G shooting (e.g. Realistic high goal scoring rate). The general tone seems to imply that air above a STEAMWORKS Field is going to be thick with fuel on its way to clogging the counter mechanisms in the boilers.
On a more sobering note, I have published Dr. Joe's 3 "Don't Bother Unless..." Rules For High Efficiency Goal Shooting which includes this prediction:
On this issue at least I seem to be at odds with the CD community.
To try to gain allignment, I propose the following thought experiment:
Consider the teams at Worlds playing in the qualifying matches. For each team you can calculate a median number of balls that they scored in the High Efficiency Goal (note I prefer ball count not Kpa as it makes explicit how many balls we are talking about). Consider the population of these median numbers.
- 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
- 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
- 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
- 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400
I am really interested in what people think these numbers will be. I have a guess but from what I can infer, my guesses are much lower than the general CD population.
I am very serious. I ask all CD to provide your best guess as to these 4 numbers.
Cheers,
Dr. Joe J.
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Love the thread. I 1000% agree that many teams are going to waste so much build time and match time trying to mess around with Fuel. With that said, my team is one of those teams, but we have the resources to pull it off.
To answer your question:
- 1 out of 8 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
- 1 out of 20 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
- 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
- 1 out of infinity teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400
The reason I think so few teams will score high numbers of Fuel at champs is because I believe cycling gears will prove to be the priority well into champs qualifications. I doubt alliances will quickly and consistently cycle 12 gears, and leave enough time to do a significant amount of Fuel scoring. Many alliances will realize they have no hope of getting to 12 Gears, and they'll start scoring Fuel after their 6th Gear. Also, many teams will understand there is a very small benefit to scoring more than 40kPa during quals so they'll stop at that point and focus on gear cycling/defense/climbing depending on how much time is left in the match.
Many hoppers will be able to hold well over 100 Fuel. Last I checked, ours held 120 if it was filled to the brim. Many teams will be able to output 3-4 Fuel/second, taking up to 30-40 seconds to empty their large hopper. Very few teams will be able to hit with much accuracy when shooting at 3-4 Fuel/second and playing against a defender hitting them consistently.
With that said, I think some very smart teams will go away from the large 120 ball hopper with shooting speeds of 3-4 balls/second and go towards a smaller (20 Fuel) "hopper" that will allow for speeds of around 10 Fuel/second, and they'll mix these rapid fire bursts into their Gear cycles.