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Unread 19-01-2017, 11:14
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Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Johnson View Post
Consider the teams at Worlds playing in the qualifying matches. For each team you can calculate a median number of balls that they scored in the High Efficiency Goal
Hi Joe,

I don't know about others, but I did not respond because I'm still pondering what you meant by a team's median ball count.

The FRC API will almost certainly not provide a ball count per team for each match, so you can't compute the median of a team's ball counts for all qual matches a team played.

If the FRC API provides (which it most likely will) alliance ball count for each match in a qual event, then it's a simple matter to use the favored OPR model and algorithm (linear least squares) to estimate an OPR-like average of each teams per match ball count for each qual event. But what does "median" mean in that context?

So perhaps what you actually meant was a percentile distribution of those team ball count "OPR" estimates? That interpretation seems to reconcile better with the fill-in chart.


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