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Unread 25-01-2017, 12:37
Donut Donut is offline
The Arizona Mentor
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Re: Efficient Points

Quote:
Originally Posted by JesseK View Post
Quals:
  • Suppose a gear bot and a fuel bot have a 50% (equal) chance to win a match.
  • In their winning matches, the average gear bots will win with more points vs the average ball bot.
  • If they're likely to get more points, they're likely to win more than 50% of matches vs bots who do balls
  • Therefore ball & gear bots will likely net the same RP in a 1-to-1 comparison.
  • Therefore gear bots likely rank higher than ball bots, all else equal (reference 2nd-order sort this year)
Points 1 and 3 contradict each other. If gear bots as a whole are likely to win more than 50% of matches vs fuel bots, then either gear bots had a >50% chance of winning matches or fuel bots had a <50% chance to win matches (or both).

Additionally, I don't see how point 2 leads to the conclusion of point 3. How do we conclude margin of victory in winning matches predicts winning more total matches, unless you are predicting a higher average points scored per match for gear bots (wins and losses), which means a greater probability of winning matches in the first place (counter point 1)?
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