Quote:
Originally Posted by JesseK
I suspect that an above-average gear bot is capable of a gear cycle in the time it takes an above-average ball bot to offload a full hopper. Whether the gears are worth it depends on whether the 'super cycle' bot will get the 3rd rotor or not, and what happened to its autonomous gear. Given equal resources and time to develop, I suspect the gear bot will have a more reliable 65-pt gear auton and can also reliably solo up through the 3rd rotor*. Disregarding hanging, a super-cycle bot must be able to hit 145 points with auton and 'super cycles'. This is doable, but IMO isn't what an above average team will produce. At that point it would come down to how the alliance would help.
*so long as partners at least drop their auton gears, this is likely so trivial a good gear bot can use the extra time to play defense on the super cycle bot
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To get three Rotors and alliance needs to deliver 6 total gears to the Airship. Lets assume an above average Gear cycler can do 6 Gears on its own (maybe a little high but I think reasonable), and that average Gear cyclers can do 2-3 Gears. I also think you're probably right that an above average Super Cycle robot will take about the same amount of time to empty their hopper as a Gear specialist will take to complete one full Gear cycle. So we can then assume a Super Cycle robot will do 3 Gears and 3 Hoppers.
In the case of the Gear specialist, assuming you're paired with 2 average robots, you'll be able to deliver 6+(2 or 3)+(2 or 3) = 10 - 12 Gears. This means that you'll be heavily dependent upon your alliance partners to turn 4 Rotors, and you will be heavily susceptible to defense that slows you down just enough so that you just miss 4 Rotors.
I think in situations such as this where you know delivering 12 Gears will be close, you're better off just planning on delivering 6 Gears, and spending the rest of the time doing other valuable tasks like defense, or scoring Fuel (which isn't possible in the case of the Gear only robots). If I'm playing against an alliance that might just barely score 12 Gears, I'm going to play extreme defense towards the end of the match to ensure you just miss your 12th Gear.
In the case of the Super Cycle robot, continuing the assumption that you're with 2 average robots, you'll be able to deliver 3+(2 or 3)+(2 or 3) = 7 - 9 Gears. I personally like this situation much better. You have a decent buffer against defense/mistakes and you are also shooting 3 hoppers worth of Fuel into the Boiler. The value of this Fuel will be completely dependent on the effectiveness of the shooter, but some Fuel points are basically guaranteed. These Fuel points will more often than not be the difference in matches where both alliances turn 3 Rotors and have the same number of climbs.
Disclaimer: Obviously this analysis is simplified and doesn't include factors like autonomous. The analysis also changes if you assume the average robot can cycle more than 2-3 Gears. In this case, Gear specialists will likely be able to turn the 4th rotor more consistently and in doing so will be a much more sensible design choice.
TL;DR: Designing your robot to handle solely Gears is risky because you're dependent upon alliance partners to achieve a Rotor advantage vs. the opposing alliance.